Soybean harvest in the U.S. is in full swing and early yield reporting has been better than expected in some states. Soybeans futures dropped below $10/bushel after the 2-year high reached last week. 

So far China's continued hunger supported bean prices. Chinese pig population has increased considerably and stocks are being replenished as much as possible. This is demand for soybean meal which means that China will also produce soybean oil which could ease the need for palm olein and rapeseed oil.

It is still dry in southern Brazil and Argentina but rain, predicted for the coming weeks, is more than necessary for good sowing conditions. In Argentina, owners of soybeans are still reluctant sellers.

Rapeseed was supported by firm soybean prices but availability of seeds in Europe has improved a bit. In Canada the ongoing harvest is less than 50% completed and reported yields are in line with the three-year average. In South Australia the crop is reported to be in good condition following recent rains but Western Australia remained dry. China is expected to increase imports of Canadian rapeseed and Europe will be importing Canadian seed till the end of this year and switch imports to Australian seed in early 2021. 

Sunflower seeds are still expensive but most players seem to have covered their shorts. We saw a big correction as sunflower seed oil started losing demand and as sellers wanted to cash the high prices before possible demand destruction from Covid-19 and coming harvest pressure kicks in. After skyrocketing, the six-port market lost $150/t in one week! 

Palm oil production may peak and palm oil underwent price sentiment of other oils: plantations in Indonesia and Malaysia entered the seasonal peak production period, but it remains to be seen how big the production increase will be this season and if buyer’s appetite for palm will remain as high as we saw in the recent past.

(January position, refined, in euro):